the Success Formula for Entrepreneurs

2021/12/01

Categories: entrepreneurship Tags: personal development

the Formula

\(y = f(x) + \epsilon\)

the Four Elements

\(y\): success level (the dependent variable): something you can keep in mind but is NOT under your control. It’s the outcome that “depends” on something else (on the right-hand side of the formula).

\(x\): the input (the independent variable): something you can control.

\(f\): your method (the functional form): something that determines how your input converts into your outcome.

\(\epsilon\): noise (the error term): good luck and bad luck that are totally inevitable and completely out of your control. But it is very important so you should take notice and be mindful of it.

How to Use the Formula

setting goal

Set and Forget. An entrepreneur should first model his/her \(y\) (success level). Set a goal on \(y\) but learn to shift focus to \(f(x)\). By making the shift, it is important to be emotionally detached from \(y\) when working on \(f(x)\). This is because if you are so emotionally fixated on \(y\), you will forget \(f(x)\). Then your formula will become merely “\(y = \epsilon\)”, which means your outcome will totally depend on luck. In this case, you will learn nothing and control nothing.

Challenging, Specific, and Multi-level. Setting a fixed, challenging goal (\(y\)) helps you search for a better \(f\). The right way is to be fixed on your \(y\) but be flexible on your \(f\), because \(y\) (what you will achieve) depends on \(f(x)\) (your method applied to your input), but not the other way around. Also, write down your goals at multiple levels. Don’t fall into the “security trap.” If you only have a “capped”, single-level goal for success, your learning and exploration for better \(f\) will slow down or even stop as soon as you hit your first-level goal.

shifting focus

Understand the “\(=\)”: Goal is NOT Method. \(f(x)\) is the working process of how you use a given “method” \(f\) to transform your input \(x\), e.g., how you structure your schedule, how you organize your resources, how you utilize your skills, and, in the most general term, your “way of thinking.” When you understand this part, you will never mess up your goal \(y\) with your method \(f\) and your input \(x\).

Avoid “Short-term” Traps. Whenever you feel pressures from short-term \(y\) or are eager to receive instant gratifications from short-term \(y\), your should try to get your focus back on \(f(x)\). \(f(x)\) is under your control “right here and right now,” \(y\) is not. You won’t be successful by focusing on success itself (\(y\)). What you should do is to learn this simple trick: “do the right things; success will follow.” Pressures and temptations from short-term \(y\) can only take your productivity (your creativity and your concentration) away from you. Moreover, the transformation process of \(y = f(x)\) typically takes time to present itself. In the short term, you only tend to see \(\epsilon\).

Develop a Skill of Focus-shifting:

  1. When tasking on \(x\), you should concentrate at “right here and right now” and throw \(y\) completely into the back of your mind.
  2. When taking a break from \(x\), revisit your \(y\) and analyze \(\epsilon\) to improve your \(f\).
  3. When implementing on \(f(x)\), use schedules to develop routines for making plans and doing reflections, and let a well-paced, non-stopping process to carry you through.

developing advantage

Accept and Learn. The best part is that your outcome depends on how you deal with \(\epsilon\), be it flukes or failures. You need to do two things. First, remember that \(\epsilon\) is not the whole part of \(y\). Otherwise, you will give up easily after encountering failures. The secret behind most success is that “winners never quit.” Second, learn from it. Understand that different people have different versions of the formula. Your \(\epsilon\) can also be other people’s \(\epsilon\). But if you can carve out a portion of \(\epsilon\) and put it into your \(f(x)\), which is a trick you figure out before others, or something you know but others don’t, you will have an unfair advantage. In this case, the \(\epsilon\) turns around to help you, by setting up a barrier to prevent others from stealing your success.

Stone to Gold. How to do it? Analyze \(\epsilon\) carefully, and treat it as the “feedback” on your new \(f\) (method) and different combinations of \(x\) (input), you will develop a refined \(f(x)\) with private knowledge to create and sustain your advantage. Now, your \(f(x)\) (method on input) is others’ “luck and miracles” \(\epsilon\). The most amazing thing is that only you know how to use a reliable system \(f(x)\) to mass-produce “luck and miracles” in the eyes of others, and only you know there is no such things as “luck and miracles.”

Own your Errors. \(\epsilon\) has another nice name – error. Most successful people crack the code from trials and errors. Learning from feedback is key. The progress of learning is a function of the number of iterations \(x\). A greater number of iterations can generate more helpful data for us to learn from. But sometimes the feedback can be quite subtle. Without smoking-gun evidence on whether your method \(f\) will work, we have to rely on our own judgment, a leap of faith, or risk-taking. When you feel it’s too hard, it might be worth holding on to your old way \(f\), or it might be a good time to change your method \(f'\). But never quit too soon, because the path to success is typically non-linear, so it is often critical to hold on until your hit the “critical mass” for any good methods \(f\) to work.

Plug Your Life into the Formula

\(y_{t} = f(x_{t-1}) + \epsilon\) (\(\text{your present outcome = your old method applied to your old input + luck}\))

\(y_{t+1} = f'(x_t) + \epsilon\) (\(\text{your future outcome = your new method applied to your new input + luck}\))

  1. Only by taking full responsibility of your present outcome \(y_{t}\) as a result of your old method \(f(x_{t-1})\) and setting a new goal \(y_{t+1}\) can you feel a strong desire for new method \(f'(x)\).

  2. Take control of your new method \(f'(x)\), by preparing yourself to learn and master \(f'\) with inevitable \(\epsilon\).

  3. Take actions, and most importantly, hold on to process in \(x_t\) that will guarantee your future success \(y_{t+1}\).

the Backend Story

An entrepreneur friend asked me for something that is worth hearing. This is what I told him––a regression model.


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